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ASML Earnings Highlights: AI Demand Driving EUV Growth Into 2026

ASML Earnings: 12 Things Management Said (Including What the Press Release Didn’t Tell You)

ASML delivered another strong earnings release for Q4 2025 and full year 2025, but the real story comes from combining the official results with management commentary from the earnings transcript. Below are the most important takeaways investors and industry watchers should know.

ASML reported €32.7 billion revenue and €9.6 billion net income in 2025, with strong profitability and cash generation. Q4 alone delivered €9.7 billion revenue and €2.8 billion net income, marking one of the strongest quarters in company history.

2. 2026 is guided as another growth year

ASML expects 2026 revenue between €34 billion and €39 billion with gross margin between 51% and 53%. This implies continued demand strength despite semiconductor cycle volatility.

3. AI demand is now confirmed as structurally real

Management repeatedly emphasized that customers have become more confident that AI demand is sustainable, not temporary. This is driving medium-term capacity expansion plans across logic and memory customers.

4. EUV is becoming even more dominant in future revenue

The transcript revealed that €25.5 billion of the €38.8 billion backlog is EUV-related. This shows future revenue is heavily skewed toward advanced lithography.

5. EUV revenue is expected to increase significantly in 2026

Management explicitly stated EUV revenue will increase meaningfully versus 2025, making it the primary growth engine for the company.

6. High-NA EUV is officially entering revenue contribution phase

Q4 included revenue recognition for two High-NA systems. This marks an early but important milestone in the commercialization of next-generation lithography.

7. China revenue expected around 20 percent of total

Management said China should represent roughly 20 percent of revenue, aligned with backlog exposure. This level of transparency was not highlighted in the press release but is important for geopolitical risk analysis.

8. Non-EUV system revenue likely flat but with strong internal demand areas

While total non-EUV systems may be flat in 2026, demand remains strong in advanced logic, memory, metrology, and inspection.

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9. DRAM supply could be tight starting 2026

Management signaled tight DRAM supply driven by HBM and DDR demand, which supports higher lithography intensity and stronger tool demand.

10. Node transitions are accelerating

Customers are moving from 4nm to 3nm and ramping 2nm logic. In DRAM, 1b and 1c nodes are expanding. These transitions increase EUV layer counts and drive tool demand.

11. Installed base upgrades are becoming a key growth lever

Customers increasingly use upgrades as the fastest way to increase output capacity. This supports recurring high-margin installed base service growth.

12. Technology performance is improving faster than expected

NXE 3800 reached 220 wafers per hour and even demonstrated 230 wafers per hour at some customers. High-NA qualification is progressing well, with early high-volume manufacturing preparation already happening.

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The simple takeaway

The press release shows strong financial performance and steady guidance. The transcript reveals something more important: AI demand is pulling forward capacity, EUV dominance is accelerating, and technology adoption is happening faster than many expected. Together, these point to strong multi-year visibility for ASML, especially if AI infrastructure demand continues to expand.

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